The prospects for nuclear energy in Germany's September election look good, according to an analysis by Deutsche Bank, but coalition politics remain finely balanced.
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There are five weeks to go before the federal elections in Germany, and although debate is naturally dominated by economic concerns, energy policy remains a major issue. And within that sphere, the question of whether to stick to a 1998 decision to end nuclear power divides the main parties.
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Deutsche Bank's poll tracking puts Chancellor Angela Merkel's CDU party clearly in the lead with about 37% of the vote. Her personal popularity is confirmed by a leading 65% support as national leader, far ahead of the 23% of Frank-Walter Steinmeier whose SDP enjoys only the same share.
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With Germany's system of proportional representation, a coalition of parties is required to make an overall majority for government, meaning the election result will probably hinge on who Merkel chooses as a partner. Deutsche Bank said there was much cause to believe in a CDU coalition with the FDP, who also would seek to end the nuclear phase-out. The bank's analysts said: "We hope that this decision will hold for a longer horizon that just one legislative period."
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However, waiting in the wings for a chance to enter power are the Green Party, currently polling at about 14%, and Die Linke on 12%. Should either of those gain influence in office, any hopes for the end of the phase-out would be lost for another term.
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The bank's favoured combination of the CDU, its sister party CSU and the FDP would probably have 50% of parliamentary seats, it said. But this figure puts the future for nuclear power on a knife-edge: A grand coalition including the SDP would have 60% and a potential CDU/CSU/FDP/Green combo would have 63%.听
Deutsche Bank noted that Merkel and the CSU are currently gaining in popularity while Stenmeier and the SPD fall, and that a television debate in coming weeks will likely cover energy issues.
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Germans refer to the potential revision of the nuclear phase-out decision as 'lifetime extension' for the country's听17 reactors. It is thought this would be heavily taxed at around 50%, but would still lead to profit increases of a few percent for RWE and EOn over the next few years while boosting the country's chances of meeting climate goals.
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